Goldman Sachs: Europe Needs Much Higher Gas Prices to Secure Winter Supply
Natural gas prices in Europe need to jump by December for European storage to fill up with enough inventory for the coming winter if the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists and keeps spot LNG prices in Asia elevated, according to Goldman Sachs. Since the Middle East crisis began, Europe has started losing the competition with Asia for spot LNG supply amid spiking prices in the absence of most Qatari LNG term volumes.
Why It Matters
This story touches on goldman-sachs, iran, europe — topics readers are actively tracking. Review and add editorial context before publishing.
Key Facts
- Fact 1: Current storage levels are about 62% full, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows.
- Fact 2: Current inventory levels are at the lowest in 17 years, and supply available for purchase is tighter than it was back in 2022.
- Fact 3: “In a scenario where Middle East energy exports normalize only gradually through 2027, we estimate that December 2026 TTF would likely need to move above €100/MWh,” they said.
- Fact 4: This is 110% above Goldman Sachs’ base case of 50 euros per MWh, the analysts said.
Natural gas prices in Europe need to jump by December for European storage to fill up with enough inventory for the coming winter if the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists and keeps spot LNG prices in Asia elevated, according to Goldman Sachs. Since the Middle East crisis began, Europe has started losing the competition with Asia for spot LNG supply amid spiking prices in the absence of most Qatari LNG term volumes.
The Iran war and the intensified competition from Asia came just as Europe is trying to build in the spring and summer natural gas inventories for the next winter. Current storage levels are about 62% full, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows. That’s the lowest level for this time of year in nearly two decades and well below the five-year average.
(Original synthesis pending human/AI review — generated by the stub provider by selecting real sentences from the source material, not by writing new analysis or commentary.)
Original source: OilPrice.com